We compare the forecasts of a year ago with the actual data for the year, evaluating whether there have been successes or errors; and we advance those that are planned for 2020.
A year in which the new Mortgage Law and political and economic uncertainty have limited demand and price growth in the sector. According to the INE, the number of sales has fallen 3.1% in the first 10 months of the year, moving away from the 2018 figures, which exceeded half a million home transactions.
Statistics of the real estate sector in 2019 indicate that the price of finished housing (new and used) has risen 3.6% (Tinsa report), but the numbers change according to the different locations and areas.
In Madrid, the districts of Carabanchel and Vicálvaro have grown in double digits (115), while in Hortaleza the increase has hardly been 1%.
In Barcelona, the gap is not so large, although there are districts with negative growth, as in Ciutat Vella; on the opposite side, maximum advances of 6% in Sant Andreu.
Idealista data shows that the price of used housing has increased by 4.6% year-on-year in 2019.
According to Acuña, rising housing prices in Spain reach 4%, with a demand of 555,000 homes and a surplus (stock) of 850,000 units. The conclusions dictate that the bullish phase of the real estate cycle is running out.
The construction of houses in 2020 and 2018 was positive, with increases in finished homes by 36% and 18%, even below demand, but now very close to finding the balance.
This stabilization of the demand is due to the fact that the sale of homes fell 3.2% year-on-year between January and September 2019, due in part to the impact of the implementation of the new mortgage law (INE and the Registrar’s Association).
In the first half of 2019, the sale of homes fell by 2.8% due to the decline in Spanish buyers, especially the second-home sales.
New construction visas grew 8.8% year-on-year between January and September 2019, but show a significant slowdown.
The level of production of new homes , around 107,000 annually, is below the net creation of homes in the last 12 months.
REAL ESTATE FORECASTS FOR 2019
The Study Trends of the Real Estate Market in 2019, , focused on opinions of real estate agents, funds, institutional investors and financial entities, indicated a sharp increase in prices , due to the shortage of quality assets.
The shared housing ranks first in the ranking of investment and development over other investment niches, such as data centers, logistics, homes for seniors or students.
BBVA Research noted in its annual study (January 2019) that demographic trends would continue to support housing demand and that the increase in housing prices would slow down , but will continue to exceed inflation in the short and medium term.
FORECASTS IN REAL ESTATE FOR 2020
CaixaBank Research forecasts point to a slowdown , with growth greater than the Spanish economy as a whole.
Acuña’s forecasts for the next 3 years speak of a positive price evolution , reaching average levels close to 90% with respect to the maximum of the previous cycle (prior to the crisis).
Home sales will grow 4% and prices 4.8% in 2020, reaching 650,000 transactionsit is noted that new construction homes will grow by 18.4% in 2020, with more than 94,000 projects completed.
There is a trend towards moderation and stability in real estate transactions carried out by resident and non-resident foreigners, with a more marked decrease among non-residents
As for the rental market, the arrival of new emigration and the change of mentality of young people will increase demand; Currently only 1 in 5 homes is occupied with rent.
The rental prices will remain, once they have reached the ceiling. And with the new Rental Law, with benefits for the tenant, there are fewer homes available for rent in
, because the landlord prefers to sell.